Page 28 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 20

The total HRH requirement at time t, N is given by,
rt

Here, N is in the unit of Full Time Equivalent (FTE), and must be converted into headcount
rt
for gap analysis and planning purposes.

2.2.1 Need-based Approach

With the needs-based approach, the requirement of HRH is estimated based on population,
health care needs and have considered the following four main factors:

2.2.2 Service Demand Approach

The service demand approach in this study applied the similar factors and models as in the
needs-based approach. However, instead of provider’s perspective in the epidemiology and
level of service components, the utilisation data of healthcare services as well as service
coverage for diseases / conditions were used as the input data. This approach allows the
estimation of the HRH requirement based on the community’s perspective of health care
service needs.

2.3 Supply and Requirement Gap Analysis

By integrating the supply and requirement models, it is then possible to conduct a gap
analysis. Gap analysis is simply a comparison between the output from the supply
model to output from the requirement model, which is the number of HRH supply and
HRH requirement. The outputs are in full-time equivalent (FTE) and headcount unit. The
difference of HRH supply to HRH requirement over 15 years from 2016 to 2030 is calculated
and plotted to look at the trend and pattern of supply and requirement. In the event of
substantial undersupply or oversupply, possible intervention can be simulated through
scenario analysis. These analyses involve understanding the parameters in each model,
the impact of gaps between HRH workforce supply and requirements, and find practical
strategies and changes in policies to minimise the imbalance.

2.4 Application of System Dynamics Approach in HRH Workforce Modelling

Healthcare system is complex and interdependent, making the projections of HRH supply
and requirements complex and difficult. It was, therefore, decided to use the System
Dynamics (SD) approach for developing the HRH supply and needs-based requirement
projection models. SD is a collaborative simulation modelling approach that has been used
for many years to support significant planning decisions in the healthcare systems worldwide
(Birch, 2007; CfWI, 2013b, 2013c, 2014b). It enables complex HRH workforce supply and
requirement to be better understood and their behaviour over time to be quantified and
projected using computer simulation. With SD, not only that complex processes are able to
be represented and integrated with the complex datasets, its ability to represent a system
graphically, stakeholders can readily be involved in the modelling and validation processes.
This study used Vensim software as a tool to build the SD-based HRH projection models.

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030