Page 26 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 18

However, based on the comprehensiveness of the underlying factors that are taken into
account in estimating HRH requirements, and the belief that one of the objectives of a health
system must be to address the health care needs of its population, the needs-based approach
was judged the most appropriate approach to be used. This study is the first study that
used a needs-based approach in projecting HRH workforce supply and requirements in the
Malaysian context. This study also is the first study that used System Dynamics (SD) simulation
modelling approach, instead of using MS Excel tool, to develop and integrate the supply and
the needs-based requirements projection models. SD is known to be a dynamic and flexible
method, widely used for modelling complex problems. It has been used in many workforce
planning studies in Canada and the United Kingdom (Birch, 2007; CfWI, 2013b, 2013c, 2014b).

The following sections provide, in a more detail, the modelling methods and processes
carried in this HRH workforce modelling and projection study.

2.1 The HRH Workforce Supply Modelling: The In-and-Out Flows Approach

The supply or availability of HRH is conceptually simpler to estimate and project.
The supply projection model is devoted to identifying how many HRH are or will be
available to deliver health services to the population. It requires careful calculation of
the numbers of new entrants into the health workforce, the capacity to produce more
or fewer health workers in the future and recruit them into the health services industry,
and the loss rates through retirement, emigration, death or pre-retirement leaving. This
way of supply calculation may be called formally, as the In-and-Out Flows approach as
illustrated in Figure 6. The inflows may include the graduated workforces from local and
overseas universities, and in-migrations workforce and the outflows are workforces who
leave the system due to complete retirement, change in profession, emigration or death.

Figure 6: The In-and-Out Flows approach for HRH workforce supply projection

Inflow Stock of Health Outflow
Providers
Retire
Change
Education
Immigration profession
Emigration
Death

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030