Page 73 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

65 EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The undersupply of the nurses in meeting population healthcare needs is apparent beyond
2030. It can be seen that by 2021, there will be an undersupply of nurses in Malaysia to
fulfil the health care need and demand. By 2025 and 2030, there will be an undersupply of
nurses in comparison with requirement based on demand and need. By 2030, there will be
a shortage of 57.9 % of nurses in Malaysia to fulfil the health care demand. There will be also
a shortage of 61.9% of nurses based on population health care needs. The gap remains big
between projected supply and requirement. Nurse’s supply would not be able to meet the
requirement even by the year 2030.

However when full quota student intake scenario is applied in this model by using a maximum
number of student intake at 9,000 for Diploma Programme, 352 for Degree programme and
359 for PSL student, it can be seen the gap between full quotas projected supply compared
with projected requirement based on need reduced in the year 2025 and 2030.

Figure 26 illustrates the pattern of projected nurse supply based on full quota intake of
student scenario as compared to the baseline projection. In the full quota intake scenario,
the maximum number of student/ nurse supply is constant at 5,832 for Diploma Programme,
352 for Degree programme and 359 for PSL student. The number of the projected nurse
is not far different from the baseline up to the year 2020. Based on the simulation of the
developed model from the year 2019 to the year 2030, the supply of nurses is projected
to increase significantly if the number of student intake at Diploma and degree level is at
current situation.

Figure 26: Projection of Nurse Supply, Requirement and Full Quota Student Intake of Nurse

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030