Page 11 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

3 EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Human Resource for Health Projections

This report presents the findings of a study entitled: “NEEDS-BASED MODELLING AND
PROJECTION OF HEALTH HUMAN RESOURCES – NMRR-14-903-21795”, which aimed
at developing models to be used for the supply and requirement projections of selected
Human Resources for Health (HRH) in Malaysia. The study conducted between September
2014 to August 2016, was part of the Ministry of Health’s HRH workforce planning initiative
towards establishing a comprehensive Malaysian HRH Master Plan. This study was
specifically conducted to forecast the supply and requirement of doctors, dentists,
pharmacists, nurses and assistants medical officers, for the country over the planning
horizon up to 2030. Apart from that, this study intended to identify the effect of various
future health population trends and scenarios on HRH supply and requirements by
conducting the what-if and gap analysis.

Effective workforce planning has often described as ensuring “the right people, with the
right skills, in the right place, at the right time”. This is a challenge in health care due to
a complex mix of staff and staff functions, the geographic area that is covered and the
changing policies that influence the supply and requirement of care. Population size,
gender, age and their health status are among the important factors influencing the
requirement of HRH workforce.

Figure 1: Malaysia Population Trends from 2000 to 2030 by Age Groups

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2018

As shown in Figure 1, the population of Malaysia is projected to reach 38.07 million by
2030, and the ageing population, the population aged 60 and above, doubles up from 6% in
2000 to almost 15% in 2030. All other things equal, an older population will generally have
more significant needs for care than a younger population. In addition to the population
factor, the burden of diseases, incidence and prevalence of disease plays an important
role. Malaysia faces a double burden of disease as seen in Malaysian Burden of Disease
and Injury Study 2009 – 2014 (Institute of Public Health, 2017). Based on the NHMS study,
the prevalence of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity has increased over nine (9)
years, as shown in Table 1. This health condition predisposes to ischaemic heart disease,
which is the top cause of death in 2018 (Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2018). Figure
2 illustrates the trend in the incidence of selected infectious diseases from 2006 to 2017,
which includes dengue fever, tuberculosis, food poisoning, HIV, malaria and measles.

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030