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vi EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1 Malaysia Population Trends from 2000 to 2030 by Age Groups (Source: Department of 3
Statistics Malaysia, 2018)
Figure 2 Trend in Incidence of Selected Communicable Diseases from 2006 – 2017 (Source: 4
Health Informatics Centre, 2007 - 2018

Figure 3 Distribution of Human Resources for Health in Malaysia by Profession, 2015 (Source: 5
Health Informatics Centre, 2016)
Figure 4 Average Annual Growth Rate of Five Selected Professions Over 15 Years in Malaysia, 2002 6
– 2017 (Source: Health Informatics Centre, 2003 - 2017)
Figure 5 Integrated modelling framework of HRH Supply and Requirement Projections (Adapted 16
from Birch et al., 2007; Tomblin-Murphy et al., 2009)
Figure 6 The In-and-Out Flows approach for HRH workforce supply projection 18
Figure 7 The Causal Loop Diagram for Basic Registered Doctor Supply 21
Figure 8 The Stock and Flow Diagram for doctor supply 22
Figure 9 HRH Training Sub - Model 23
Figure 10 Doctor Supply Model (Training Sub-Model) 23
Figure 11 Doctor Supply Model (Training Sub-Model-Housemanship) - continued 24
Figure 12 Doctor Supply Model (Population Sub-Model) 25
Figure 13 Doctor Supply Model (FTE Sub-Model) 26
Figure 14 Doctor Requirement Model (Breast Cancer Sub-Model) 29
Figure 15 Dentist Requirement Model for Carries 31
Figure 16 Pharmacist Requirement Model (Medication Therapeutic Adherence Clinic) 33
Figure 17 Nurse Requirement Model (Child Health) 34
Figure 18 AMO Requirement Model (Forensic Medicine) 35
Figure 19 Projection of Doctor Supply and Doctor Requirement Based on Need and Demand 43
Figure 20 Doctor Density Comparison between Projected Doctors in Malaysia with Existing 47
Doctors in Selected OECD and High-Income Countries
Figure 21 Comparison between Projected Supply and Requirement Based on Demand, Need and 52
Australian Benchmark
Figure 22 Dentist Density Comparison between Projected Dentists in Malaysia with Existing Dentist 53
in Selected OECD Countries and Selected High-Income Country
Figure 23 Projection of Pharmacist Supply and Pharmacist Requirement Based on Need and 58
Demand
Figure 24 Pharmacist Density Comparison between Projected Pharmacists in Malaysia with Existing 59
Pharmacist in Selected Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
(OECD) and High-Income Countries
Figure 25 Projection of Nurse Supply and Nurse Requirement Based on Need and Demand 63
Figure 26 Projection of Nurse Supply, Requirement and Full Quota Student Intake of Nurse 65
Figure 27 Nurse Density comparison between actual and projected nurses in Malaysia with Nurses 66
in Selected OECD and High-Income Countries
Figure 28 Actual and Projected Supply of Assistant Medical Officers, 2015 - 2030 68
Figure 29 Projection of Assistant Medical Officers Supply and Requirement Based on Need and 70
Demand
Figure 30 Requirement Projections of Assistant Medical Officers and Nurses Before and After Task 72
Reallocation
Figure 31 AMOs Requirement Projections Before and After Task-Sharing 73

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030