Page 53 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

45 EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

b. Supply scenario

Scenario analysis was carried out to assess the impact of change in certain
parameters on the outcome. A scenario in which by awarding less sponsorship
equates to less medical student intake was simulated. Table 18 shows the gap
between supply following reduce sponsorship and requirement based on needs.

Table 18: The Gap between Supply Following Reduce Sponsorship and Requirement of Doctor in
Malaysia, 2016 – 2030

Requirement (Need) Requirement (Demand)

Gap Gap
Year Supply (Supply (Supply
n n
Scenario - Scenario -
Need) Demand)
2016 40,982 78,142 -37,160 62,117 -21,135

2017 43,730 80,462 -36,732 64,194 -20,464
2018 46,821 82,573 -35,752 66,067 -19,246
2019 50,121 84,465 -34,344 67,709 -17,588
2020 54,150 86,100 -31,950 69,107 -14,957
2021 58,477 87,500 -29,023 70,271 -11,794
2022 62,994 88,859 -25,865 71,399 -8,405
2023 66,071 90,219 -24,148 72,524 -6,453
2024 69,115 91,567 -22,452 73,638 -4,523
2025 72,124 92,905 -20,781 74,747 -2,623

2026 75,096 94,262 -19,166 75,873 -777
2027 78,029 95,651 -17,622 77,026 +1,003
2028 80,920 97,053 -16,133 78,195 +2,725
2029 83,766 98,487 -14,721 79,391 +4,375
2030 86,565 99,942 -13,377 80,607 +5,958
Notes: Positive (+) gap indicates a surplus, and negative (-) gap indicates a shortage

The scenario in which by awarding less sponsorship equates to less medical student intake, it is
projected that there will be less supply of doctors. This scenario leads to a significant wide gap
in meeting population health care needs and demands as compared to the baseline projection
of supply. Nevertheless, this projection may differ to a real situation in which despite a reduction
in sponsorship awarded, the number of medical graduates may remain increases over the
years. This may be due to an increase in self-paying and student’s loan to study medicine.

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030