Page 52 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 44

Table 17: The Gap between Supply and Requirement of Doctor in Malaysia, 2016 - 2030

Requirement (Need) Requirement (Demand)

Gap Gap
Year Supply (Supply (Supply
n n
Scenario - Scenario -
Need) Demand)
2016 51,988 78,142 -26,154 62,117 -10,129
2017 56,091 80,462 -24,371 64,194 -8,103
2018 60,344 82,573 -22,229 66,067 -5,723
2019 64,423 84,465 -20,042 67,709 -3,286

2020 68,484 86,100 -17,616 69,107 -623
2021 72,812 87,500 -14,688 70,271 +2,541
2022 77,136 88,859 -11,723 71,399 +5,737
2023 81,446 90,219 -8,773 72,524 +8,922
2024 85,737 91,567 -5,830 73,638 +12,099
2025 89,981 92,905 -2,924 74,747 +15,234
2026 94,182 94,262 -80 75,873 +18,309

2027 98,341 95,651 +2,690 77,026 +21,315
2028 102,452 97,053 +5,399 78,195 +24,257
2029 106,514 98,487 +8,027 79,391 +27,123
2030 110,523 99,942 +10,581 80,607 +29,916
Notes: Positive (+) gap indicates a surplus, and negative (-) gap indicates a shortage

The undersupply of the doctor in meeting population healthcare needs is
apparent in the first ten years. Following a balance between supply and Need in 2026,
it can be seen that supply of doctor will exceed population health care requirement or
known as oversupply if all parameters remain the same. The supply of doctors will
exceed (surplus) the projected Need by 10.0% and projected Demand by 30% in 2030.

It can be seen that by 2021, there will be an oversupply of doctors in Malaysia to fulfil
the health care demand. Nevertheless, the requirement projections do not account for
existing and future needs of rehabilitation, palliative, geriatric care services, increase
in disease burden and incidence as well as advancement in medical care. The needs
for these services are presumed to have a significant impact on doctor requirement.

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030